In the second half of China's manufacturing industry or market adjustment as the main

Overall, this month, HSBC manufacturing PMI final value is consistent with the case in June reflected the high frequency data, financial constraints and shrinking market demand, etc. Description stability maintenance policy can not effectively alleviate the difficult situation faced by manufacturing firms, domestic no significant downward pressure on the economy eased in June real economic data still room to fall.

The employment index hit a six-year low

As a display of China's economic operation of an important indicator, whether or HSBC in June PMI is still expected, but the improvement in the manufacturing sector despite the decline is not obvious, HSBC data show that in June the total amount of new orders rebounded slightly wounded appeared 4 , but the magnitude is considered only slight shrinkage output also slowed down compared with May.

It is worth noting that the employment index in June HSBC PMI index fell to 46.6%, a record low of more than six years, and this means that within a month the enterprise compression employment rate reached a peak since February 2009. Coincidentally, the National Bureau of Statistics released the PMI index, employing index was 48.1%, decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points in May, below the critical point.

Furthermore, the size of the enterprise point of view, medium and large enterprises PMI PMI was 50.8%, edged up by 0.1 percentage points in May, remains above the critical point, has become a strong support manufacturing PMI steadied; medium-sized enterprises PMI was 50.2% down 0.2 percentage points from last month, it is still above the critical point; small business PMI was 47.5%, down 0.4 percentage point contraction amplitude increased for two consecutive months.

China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center of macro research director Xie Yaxuan said Overall, this month, HSBC manufacturing PMI final value is consistent with the case in June reflected the high frequency data, financial constraints and shrinking market demand and so failed to explain the maintenance of stability policy effectively alleviate the difficult situation faced by manufacturing firms, no significant downward pressure on the domestic economy eased in June real economic data still room to fall.

Easing effect is diluted

Just when everyone looking forward to loose monetary policy can bring some improvement in June PMI, the data gave the industry poured cold water. "Thus, in June of enterprise development momentum is still insufficient, the market demand at home and abroad are still weak." National Bureau of Statistics Service Sector Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qing River, analysts said.

Chinese Vice Minister of Research Department of International Economic Exchange Center Wang Jun also expressed a similar view. Specifically, Wang explained that in June PMI does not obvious signs of volatility and weakness in external demand has inseparable relations. "In this case, large companies may be able to maintain growth, but will be increasingly affected SMEs highlights." Wang expressed. The industry experts have said that in our country lack of demand, downward pressure on the overall situation has not changed much, short-term monetary easing policy can not simply save the industry shrinking trend, the central bank cut interest rates did not make PMI better still traceable.

In addition, the industry also said that in our country continue to be introduced to encourage entrepreneurship and promote employment when the New Deal, PMI companies exhibited layoffs also dilutes the positive role of policy to some extent. A survey shows that in June 12% of surveyed companies laid off employees, the majority of respondents attributed to cost-cutting program attrition. However, analysts say that, attrition and other factors that could cause the backlog index edged higher in June, but the actual growth rate for the PMI may bring very weak.

Or adjust the main market in the second half

"In fact, the overall supply and demand imbalance is the need for long-term adjustment, including the GDP growth target is 7 Paul wants to maintain economic stability and development. Therefore, a larger rate cut after rounds of drop quasi stable meaning." Wang expressed .

Professor, Institute of Industrial Economics Capital University of Economics and Chen believes that the first half, the government introduced to encourage and stimulate the release of its policy has been that some action, although relatively long period, but the second half should be more or returned to the market to its own Adjustment. "China should deepen reform, it is necessary to reduce government intervention in the market and restore the true colors of the market, so as to achieve a balance of supply and demand." Chen and representation.

Zhang Jun Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities macroeconomic research director believes that the monetary policy transmission mechanism poor background, the central focus of the policy is expected to begin turning a proactive fiscal policy to raise funds to start construction of new infrastructure projects in place rate.